Multi-state churn analysis

with a subscription product

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This is a joint online event of Vienna Data Science Group, Frankfurt Data Science, Budapest Data Science Meetup, BCN Analytics, Budapest.AI, Barcelona Data Science and Machine Learning Meetup, Budapest Deep Learning Reading Seminar and Warsaw R Users Group.SPEAKER
Marcin Kosiński has a master degree in Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis specialty. Challenges seeker and devoted R language enthusiast. In the past, keen on the field of large-scale online learning and various approaches to personalized news article recommendation.Community events host: organizer of Why R? conferences whyr.pl. Interested in R packages development and survival analysis models. Currently explores and improves methods for quantitative marketing analyses and global surveys at Gradient Metrics.TOPIC
Subscriptions are no longer just for newspapers. The consumer product landscape, particularly among e-commerce firms, includes a bevy of subscription-based business models. Internet and mobile phone subscriptions are now commonplace and joining the ranks are dietary supplements, meals, clothing, cosmetics and personal grooming products.
Standard metrics to diagnose a healthy consumer-brand relationship typically include customer purchase frequency and ultimately, retention of the customer demonstrated by regular purchases. If a brand notices that a customer isn’t purchasing, it may consider targeting the customer with discount offers or deploying a tailored messaging campaign in the hope that the customer will return and not “churn”.The churn diagnosis, however, becomes more complicated for subscription-based products, many of which offer multiple delivery frequencies and the ability to pause a subscription. Brands with subscription-based products need to have some reliable measure of churn propensity so they can further isolate the factors that lead to churn and preemptively identify at-risk customers.During the presentation I’ll show how to analyze churn propensity for products with multiple states, such as different subscription cadences or a paused subscription. If the time allows I’ll also present useful plots that provide deep insights during such modeling, that we have developed at Gradient Metrics - a quantitative marketing agency

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